In hindsight we all have perfect vision. However, if we are to properly judge past decisions, we must consider the context at the time that they were made.
The Reserve Bank interest rate rises at the start of the year may well be beginning to show up in the national accounts data. It is indeed something that is working to harm the already fragile economy. However, given the information the RBA had in February and March, it is difficult to criticise the decisions they made then.
Until September, the overriding concern of the RBA was inflation. Inflation distorts relative prices, reduces the real value of money, redistributes wealth from debtors to creditors, and disrupts the tax system. The RBA sets interest rates in a forward-looking manner, seeking to bring inflation into the 2 to 3 per cent band over the medium run. Given the outlook earlier in the year--strong growth, very low unemployment, a terms of trade boom and inflation around 4 per cent--they were right to rate rates. If anything, they didn't raise them high enough to combat the inflation scourge quickly.
Since September rates have fallen by three whole percentage points. The RBA was quick to react to the financial crisis and global downturn, and did so in a pre-emptive manner, cutting rates well before the downturn shows up in national accounts and unemployment figures. In hindsight this monetary policy may look schizophrenic, but it merely reflects the way that interest rates are set by balancing all information (and risks) that is at hand each month and looking towards the future.
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We shouldn't be too concerned about the September quarter national accounts. Yes, national growth is at a standstill (0.1 per cent for the quarter), but we have to look at the bigger picture.
First, we are one of the few big industrialised economies that is not already in recession.
Second, the high interest rates that we had until a few months ago were acting to constrain economic activity during the September quarter, which combined with the financial crisis and global slowdown to produce such a low growth figure.
However, as the RBA's 300 basis point rate reduction since September and the government's fiscal stimulus kicks in over the coming year, we are likely to see some better figures on the national accounts. Whether we go into recession depends a lot on what happens to our trading partners, but our policymakers are working hard to pre-emptively stave off recession.
Labels: economics, monetary policy